Five Reasons Blu-Ray Will Fail
There seems to be a buzz lately that consumers are just not buying into Blu-ray. Here are five reasons why I think Blu-ray will ultimately fail in the consumer marketplace...
| Check out this week's most popular articles. |
Check out theseFREE trial downloads 
RoboForm memorizes and securely stores all your passwords. Enjoy one-click logins, complete checkout forms with one click. This is one program I use all day, every day! 
Slow computer? Diskeeper 2010 means a clean disk, unprecedented speed and reliable efficiency! Download the free trial and see what a difference it makes for you. |
Will Consumers Reject Blu-Ray?
It's been more than a year since the backers of Blu-ray triumphed in the Format Wars, sending HD-DVD to the technology scrap heap. But consumers don't seem to care. Traditional DVDs are outselling Blu-ray discs by a 6 to 1 margin, and a recent Harris Interactive survey indicated that 93 percent of Americans have no plans to buy a Blu-ray player within the next year. Even though Blu-ray sales are slowly increasing on a year-to-year basis, only 7 percent of Americans own a Blu-ray player today.
It's my opinion that sales of Blu-Ray players and Blu-ray discs will not reach the critical mass required to make it a longterm commercial success. I don't think the Blu-ray folks will wave the white flag any time soon, but the writing on the wall appears to be getting clearer.
Here are five reasons why I think Blu-ray will fail, or at least remain a marginal player in the entertainment arena:
- Video Quality - I've wandered through the electronics department at local stores, and have taken a good hard look at HD TV screens showing both Blu-ray and standard DVD movies. To be honest, my untrained eye can't see much of a difference. Here's why... most DVD players now have "upsampling" that converts standard DVD movies to near-HD quality on the fly. If you're not a serious videophile, the difference between Blu-ray and upsampled DVD is hard to detect.
- Money - In a tough economy with high unemployment and inflation looming, paying a $200 premium for a Blu-ray player is going to be a hard sell. I've seen DVD players with HD upsampling for $50. And that's only half of the story. Blu-ray discs cost $10-$15 more than regular DVDs. I'm into gadgets and technology, but I just don't see the value, or a compelling reason to go with Blu-ray. I might be tempted, just to have the latest and greatest, if the price of the discs was the same. But the "add insult to injury" tactic that the Blu-ray folks have adopted isn't working for me.
- Got HD? - In order to enjoy the stunning HD quality of the Blu-ray experience, you must have an HD TV. Less than half of American consumers currently have a high-definition TV. That will obviously grow, but it's still a major limiting factor for the adoption of Blu-ray.
- The Disc is Dead - Netflix and other competitors are rapidly popularizing the discless video on demand concept. Cable, satellite and fiber-optic TV providers are also offering pay-per-view movies in high definition. Why run to the video store when you can click a few buttons on your remote control and get the same result? I think the days when people buy or rent movies on spinning discs are coming to an end.
- The Internet - Hey Blu-ray guys... ever heard of that interweb thingie? It's getting pretty popular. The younger generation is all over Youtube, Joost and Hulu, thumbing their noses at Blockbuster and broadcast TV. Entertainment is moving to the Web. Fast access to high definition movies and TV shows, and streaming home media servers will continue to erode the market for both Blu-ray and DVD players.
Do you agree that Blu-ray is doomed to failure? Post your comments below...
|
|
Need more tech support?
|
|
|
 Check out other articles in this category:
|
Posted by Bob Rankin on June 25, 2009 03:39 PM
| Need More Help? Try the AskBobRankin Updates Newsletter. It's Free! |
 |
Prev Article: Alternatives to Adobe Reader |
|
Next Article: Windows 7 Half Price Offer |
 |
|
Link to this article from your site or blog. Just copy and paste from this box: Related Keywords: Video blu-ray dvd disc HD upsampling HDTV |
There's more reader feedback... See all 42 comments for this article.
Post your Comments, Questions or Suggestions
|
Ask Bob Rankin Home Page
Subscribe to AskBobRankin Updates: Free Newsletter |
|
| Copyright © 2005 - Bob Rankin - All Rights Reserved | ||
Article information: AskBobRankin -- Five Reasons Blu-Ray Will Fail (Posted: June 25, 2009 03:39 PM)
Printed from: http://askbobrankin.com/five_reasons_bluray_will_fail.html
Copyright © 2005 - Bob Rankin - All Rights Reserved
Most recent comments on "Five Reasons Blu-Ray Will Fail"
(See all 42 comments for this article.)Posted by:
sunny
24 Jul 2009
so many things happening in this space that market share is splitting away...
Posted by:
Dan
26 Jul 2009
I don't see Blu-Ray dying due to any of those reasons (Though I've never watched one, so I can't argue point 1 personally).
2/3. Disk/player prices will decrease after a while (players can now be found under $100 if you don't mind actually searching for sales), as many have already posted. That's how the tech market works. Television prices will also decline. Young people are more likely to find an affordable HDTV as their first set, and a lot of older people like the idea of having a television that they can hang up on a wall like a picture, instead of modeling their living room around the tube.
4/5. VOD is basically an expensive rental. IMO, it's not worth it. Amazon Unbox and iTunes are convenient download sources, but they are so locked down by DRM, you can't do anything with the downloads. I prefer to buy my DVDs and use freeware apps to rip them and re-encode them for my purposes (PMP, store on HDD, etc.). Similar software is out there for Blu-Ray rips as well. Besides, the Internet also assists in distributing physical media, because you can order a disk on Amazon (or Netflix), forget about it, and watch it the day it arrives in the mail.
Posted by:
peterjay
26 Jul 2009
im with you bob its getting to much like the alphabet with all the new technology almost every year new definitions are arriving i might be 60yo but cant see the dif between hd or any definition its money sooner or later 2 years on more money if it lasts, mobiles are worse i like em but expensive little beastys to operate.ive got a box full of obsolete cables drivers printers ect waiting for kirbside collection.greenies should do something they might get some votes here in australia
Posted by:
Chiko
16 Aug 2009
If you can't tell the difference between dvd and bluray quality movies then you're not looking in the right place :P
dvd's were expensive to when they came out give it some time price will drop soon everyone will have it
HD tv or computer monitor they are becoming more popular aswell
The world doesn't exactly evolve around america we don't all have access to netflix and itunes/appletv isn't worth the effort they sacrifice to much quality (we also have crappy bandwidth limitations sucks in australia) so the disk is far from dead
as for sites like youtube the quality they offer is still poor compared to that of dvd let alone bluray
i can't see bluray going away anytime soon
be sure to check out a full hd movie on bluray and compare it on a decent screen i'm sure you will be impressed :)
Posted by:
Zaphod
22 Aug 2009
I agree! Blueray will never reach the popularity of DVDs (and DVDs will slowly go away) Look at what has happened with CDs for music. They don't exist anymore because people perfer the utility of mp3, etc.
While a final version of of the mechanism to replace DVDs isn't quite there, it is coming. I can already just download (to own) video on itunes and play it back on my TV. It's still a little kluggy, but it will get better. Soon all my video will sit on my computer's hard disc, like my audio does now and I'll be able to send it to various devices where I can play it back.
The fact the current DVD quality is so good, and Blue ray so expensive, will just accelerate this process.
Posted by:
Dave
26 Aug 2009
Folks, here it comes. Four major studios have now reached agreement to allow purchase of DVD-quality movie downloads, which users can then do as they will with - burn to DVD, burn to Blueray disc, or store on a mass storage device (e.g hard drive).
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/tech/Studios-Give-Blessing-for-DVD-Downloads-55045217.html
This is not necessarily a death knell for Blueray, but it will certainly stunt it's growth. It's only a matter of time before the downloads are available in Blueray quality instead of DVD quality. At that point, nobody needs a disc or a Blueray player. Instead, they need a "Video iPod" for HD movies, with a miniature 1Tb drive and the appropriate digital video and audio output jacks. This will cause Blueray players to drop to the $20 - $30 entry level, because nobody except fringe videophiles will be willing to pay more for one when they can get the much more convenient video iPod instead.
Watch for it, and when it arrives, compare the timespan between the day DVD was launched and the day DVD players reached $30 with the day Blueray was launched and the day Blueray players reached $30. The second timespan will be a fraction of the first. All of that lost time equals lost profit for Sony, as the license holder.
Posted by:
Dustin
21 Sep 2009
Everyone is focusing on one thing only, and that is video quality. What about uncompressed audio? If you are a music lover that is a unique feature that DVD cannot match due to bandwith limitations. Of course you can tout it's only for audiophiles but for those that want the best video and audio, Blu-ray is the only way to go. The cost of discs are coming down, with local sales of $9.99 on older catalog movies becoming more frequent. What I have decided is I will only buy blu-rays for movies I watch multiple times. I have accumalated dvd's that are only watched once or twice, so now I will be more likely to use Netflix for blu-ray rentals instead of buying them. As home theaters get more popular with projectors, that are shown on 100" + screens, having 1080P media is important for the best picture. That 7% of those that own Blu-ray are millions of hobbyist (only accounting for US owners) at the front of technology. There is much room to grow and blu-ray will not be gone in any near future.
Posted by:
Raph
20 Oct 2009
I have 2 BluRay players, but only a few BluRay discs - 2 came with one of the players. The others were gifts. Why BluRay? Simply to have the option of hiring BluRay rental discs if they are available, and just in case there are surprises around the corner we don't know of yet. But, like others, I've found DVD upscaling -from good quality media - is so close to current BluRay discs, I have limited my purchases of new dics to DVD's. Is all of this this economical? - probably not, but I do have the choice. Why 2 players? Well who wants to watch Jane Austen, The Bronte Sisters, etc.? Can't you see.... it just had to be two.
Posted by:
David
19 Nov 2009
CDs don't exist? I must have been in a mirage last night when I went to the store and bought one. Everyone seems to keep forgetting: people like physical stuff they can hold in their hands. I like to see something for my money. If it does indeed go all "digital download" I'll be saving a lot of money. I am not paying to download anything.
Posted by:
Ann Onymous
20 Nov 2009
The problem with trusting to online streaming of HD is that not everyone has a 10+mb connection, and very little is legally available.
Those of us who care about things like that will (and do) support Blu-Ray. You will also see an upsurge in companies (like Disney, for example) packaging standard DVDs in with their Blu-Ray discs like they did with "Up."
Don't count Blu-Ray out just yet.