Five Reasons Blu-Ray Will Fail
There seems to be a buzz lately that consumers are just not buying into Blu-ray. Here are five reasons why I think Blu-ray will ultimately fail in the consumer marketplace... |
Will Consumers Reject Blu-Ray?
It's been more than a year since the backers of Blu-ray triumphed in the Format Wars, sending HD-DVD to the technology scrap heap. But consumers don't seem to care. Traditional DVDs are outselling Blu-ray discs by a 6 to 1 margin, and a recent Harris Interactive survey indicated that 93 percent of Americans have no plans to buy a Blu-ray player within the next year. Even though Blu-ray sales are slowly increasing on a year-to-year basis, only 7 percent of Americans own a Blu-ray player today.
It's my opinion that sales of Blu-Ray players and Blu-ray discs will not reach the critical mass required to make it a longterm commercial success. I don't think the Blu-ray folks will wave the white flag any time soon, but the writing on the wall appears to be getting clearer.
Here are five reasons why I think Blu-ray will fail, or at least remain a marginal player in the entertainment arena:
- Video Quality - I've wandered through the electronics department at local stores, and have taken a good hard look at HD TV screens showing both Blu-ray and standard DVD movies. To be honest, my untrained eye can't see much of a difference. Here's why... most DVD players now have "upsampling" that converts standard DVD movies to near-HD quality on the fly. If you're not a serious videophile, the difference between Blu-ray and upsampled DVD is hard to detect.
- Money - In a tough economy with high unemployment and inflation looming, paying a $200 premium for a Blu-ray player is going to be a hard sell. I've seen DVD players with HD upsampling for $50. And that's only half of the story. Blu-ray discs cost $10-$15 more than regular DVDs. I'm into gadgets and technology, but I just don't see the value, or a compelling reason to go with Blu-ray. I might be tempted, just to have the latest and greatest, if the price of the discs was the same. But the "add insult to injury" tactic that the Blu-ray folks have adopted isn't working for me.
- Got HD? - In order to enjoy the stunning HD quality of the Blu-ray experience, you must have an HD TV. Less than half of American consumers currently have a high-definition TV. That will obviously grow, but it's still a major limiting factor for the adoption of Blu-ray.
- The Disc is Dead - Netflix and other competitors are rapidly popularizing the discless video on demand concept. Cable, satellite and fiber-optic TV providers are also offering pay-per-view movies in high definition. Why run to the video store when you can click a few buttons on your remote control and get the same result? I think the days when people buy or rent movies on spinning discs are coming to an end.
- The Internet - Hey Blu-ray guys... ever heard of that interweb thingie? It's getting pretty popular. The younger generation is all over Youtube, Joost and Hulu, thumbing their noses at Blockbuster and broadcast TV. Entertainment is moving to the Web. Fast access to high definition movies and TV shows, and streaming home media servers will continue to erode the market for both Blu-ray and DVD players.
Do you agree that Blu-ray is doomed to failure? Post your comments below...
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Posted by Bob Rankin on 25 Jun 2009
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Most recent comments on "Five Reasons Blu-Ray Will Fail"
(See all 51 comments for this article.)Posted by:
Ann Onymous
20 Nov 2009
The problem with trusting to online streaming of HD is that not everyone has a 10+mb connection, and very little is legally available.
Those of us who care about things like that will (and do) support Blu-Ray. You will also see an upsurge in companies (like Disney, for example) packaging standard DVDs in with their Blu-Ray discs like they did with "Up."
Don't count Blu-Ray out just yet.
Posted by:
Dave in Indy
02 Dec 2009
I have an older 65" projection HDTV with no HDMI and only one component input (in use) - not sure where I would put it. Seems like a waste for sending it to composite video. :)
Posted by:
Michelle
09 Dec 2009
We love our Blu-Ray! We recently put in a new media room w/ a 58" plasma tv, pioneer reveiver, new high tower speakers and the Blu-Ray was the icing on the cake~! Movies in Blu-Ray on that set-up are the only way to wacth movies~! We love it!! Blows DVD away!!
Posted by:
Harry Skelton
14 Dec 2009
It seems that Blu-Ray is being pushed into dominance by the vendors. Recently, all the regular DVD movies have been moved from their lofty position up front in the electronics area at Walmart and have been moved to the side areas to give room for their Blu-Ray brothers. Walmart, it seems, is going to Blu-Ray. Even the players are starting to come within $10 of the higher end DVD players. Too bad they don't have USB-ROMs with movies. More space for more content - that's the ticket...
Posted by:
Mark
25 Jan 2010
Lets look back in history a bit. The VCR was around for what - 30 years - before being superceded by DVD.' DVD had about 10 years, and is still around so may go a bit longer.
Blu-Ray has been around a few years but just doesn't look like it's taking off here (UK). The only reason I'd be tempted is for computer storage. But to be honest, a portable HDD can hold more at a fraction of the cost of the outlay on a BD writer and some discs.
For video, for the last 2 years or so I have been downloading films to watch off of the Internet. Missing out on HD? I don't think so; a broadband conection, a copy of VLC player and an mkv file mean I miss out on nothing.
The industry needs to find another way to make money - if a 40 something like me can figure this out, the tech-savvy younger generations will have no problems.
Posted by:
Steve
01 Jun 2010
Lol DVD and Blu-ray are more popular than rip-off pay per view or satellite, and as for the low quality crap on the internet... lol stick to your iPads.
Posted by:
me
11 Oct 2010
for dave: your old tv is priceless for one thing. playing old video game systems that dont have the hdmi inputs, etc. have you ever tried to play a super nintendo or an old atari on a brand new hdtv using the analog inputs? it just looks awful. the Hdtv is way too sharp.
however, if you dont play old games it probably wouldnt be an issue.
Posted by:
Wade Duck
23 Jul 2011
(1) Blu Ray is not pushing the old dvd out. (2) Streaming seems to be the new trend.
(2) Consumers can buy an upgrader, pay one fee, and have improved quality.
(3) I think consumers are getting tired of being expected to buy the same films over again each time a new format comes out. Oh sure. There are some maniacs who play along. But they are the exception and not the rule.
(4) When we went from VHS to DVD, there were solid reasons. (Portability, better quality, not having to worry about the dvd wearing out from normal use, etc.)
(5) With blu ray, you loses the convenience of bringing it somewhere, playing it on a computer, etc. Add to that that you often have to go through the annoying registration process. Oh, and pay twice as much for the same film!
(6) DVD is good enough. And like most people, I am tired of the industry expecting me to buy my films over each and every single time a new format comes out.
(7) Blu ray can fall 6 feet under, and that's just fine with me.
Posted by:
Billy Brammer
16 Sep 2011
What is Blu ray?
Posted by:
dtulan
19 Oct 2011
With online media entertainment becoming simple, easy, reliable, convenient and readily available, just like TV at present, no need to go for dvd or blue ray, even for keeping record of personal media, it can be safely kept in cloud storage facility.
DVD and blue media will be history just like cassette.