Will Your Files Last a Thousand Years? - Comments Page 1

I spent a career building storage systems for guvment organizations, and we discussed media lifetime many times, as we copied data from the old stuff to the new. A big reason why data on these disks will not last 1,000 years or, at least, not be readable that long, is what we called "mean-time-to-bankruptcy".

Someone finding one of these disks in a time capsule, 1,000 years from now, might develop technology to read it, but we mortals will run out of drives, drivers, and operating systems to read it long before then.

The best way for data to last 1,000 years continues to be to copy it to new technology as it becomes available.

Very interesting story on CD/DVD lifespans. It's the first time I've been made aware of the limitation and it certainly will change my thinking about long term storage.

What about other removable media, like memory sticks, flash drives, Sim cards, etc..? Excluding drive/reader obsolescence (e.g. like the "floppies" of old), what's the life span of these media types?

EDITOR'S NOTE: M-DISC website says expect 5-8 years for a flash drive. Probably the same for SD cards, since they use the same technology.

Thanks for this article! I was not aware of this technology and will now use it.
I would be interested in a "cloud storage" backup solution that actually works, if you know of one. The problem is getting the initial "dump" to the cloud! For a system to back up, into the "cloud", takes a LONG time. Assuming:
5.0 Mbps up-link (fast)
2 Terabytes of data (my system)
10% "packetize for the internet" overhead
20% internet bandwidth utilization
8 hours per day devoted to backing up
This will take 3.5 YEARS to perform the initial backup!!!

Even if we do the "best case":
100% constant internet bandwidth utilization
24 hours per day devoted to the backup
This will mean you do not use your computer and nothing else uses your internet connection for 43 DAYS!

Backing up to the "cloud" does not work, for anyone having a terabyte or more of data.

Very good to know. Who knew the new media was more fragile than magnetic tape? I remember the push to transfer all our home movies to VHS tape, then to CD's and DVD's. The same for our photos and documents. It would seem from an archival point of view it is hard to beat paper. As Sam states, we will be forced to keep copying to newer hard drives. Or maybe we should hang on to the original photos, documents, movies and books!

Bob,
You failed to mention if M-Disc comes in only "write once / read many" or does it also come with "rewritable" capability. That would be great to know. Thanks.

The questions and opinions posed by both John and Sam are very good. BUT.....while I'm not particularly concerned about what happens to my photo and video files so far into the future as 1,000 years.....I am concerned that my thousands of images...home movies....and videos of our family (both past and present) will be preserved for at least the next century. After that it will be up to our descendents to re-copy them to the latest mediums.
But, Bob, if disks are not yet available to the buying public, what good is it to purchase a new optical drive and install it in my desktop PC? In your research, was there ANY disk manufacturer making these "M" disks? We need to know.....or maybe I'd better not be so quick to throw away all those old home movies....slides....prints, etc.

EDITOR'S NOTE: I didn't say the discs were unavailable, you can buy them now from M-DISC.com.

John Whalley said the following:

Very interesting story on CD/DVD lifespans. It's the first time I've been made aware of the limitation and it certainly will change my thinking about long term storage.

What about other removable media, like memory sticks, flash drives, Sim cards, etc..? Excluding drive/reader obsolescence (e.g. like the "floppies" of old), what's the life span of these media types?

I also have the same question. However, I will check out getting some M-Discs, because I do have some information on CDs, that I need to last longer than 3-5 years.

When I worked on a DEC PDP-1 in the 60's, I lost patience with failing punched paper tapes. I got hold of some metallized Mylar tape. Betcha when people dig up that tape 5,000 years from now, they will marvel at the ingenuity of the computer programs on the tape.

Some Cloud storage/backup services such as Crashplan let you seed things by sending them a physical hard disk if you don't want to wait on the initial backup. I believe Carbonite offers this as well.

My suspicion regarding low consumer interest is that I continue to run across so many individuals and small business who do NO backups at all that it's no surprise they aren't excited about media that will last more than a couple of years.

I would be concerned that without wide spread adoption that you'll not be able to buy M-Disk media for too long. Then the reader/writers will disappear, etc.

Even if you do not like the cloud approach you could use a now inexpensive 1-3 TB hard drive pair for mirrored backups and swap out one of the drives every six months so there was a copy on a "new one" and an "old one".

I think it's safe to say that long term backups of any data has to include switching technologies every few years to keep up with advances in the state of the art.

Great 2000 Year Year old man reference!!

Now for some nectarines.

Harold, most cloud storage companies will send you an external drive onto which you can back up your initial terabytes and then ship it to them. After that big dump it's incremental backups that are much smaller, generally.

This is the second article this month where I read about the short lifespan of standard CD/DVDs. It seems rather strange to me, since while typing this I'm listening to a standard commercial music CD made in 1998.

EDITOR'S NOTE: There are at least 2 CD reproduction techniques. Consumer-grade equipment uses dye sublimation, which is most vulnerable to decay. Some commercial CDs are made with a different process which involves physical stamping and a metallic coating. Those last longer, but are still subject to degradation after several years. A music CD will be more "forgiving" of a few missing or incorrect bits.

Phew! You gave me a scare Bob!
The proverbial 'sky' is NOT falling in my neck of the woods just yet: I went in the garage and pulled out my old photo albums and was ready to shed tears based on this topic. I used to take photos with a CanonA1 using 35mm chemical film. Then, I used to send them directly to Kodak for processing to digital equivalents using PhotoCD format (*.pcd; which is NOT to be confused with lower quality "pictureCD" format of yesteryear). The Kodak PhotoCD "Master Disc" that would be returned in about 10 days would cost $1 per shot. These CDs used gold color dyes and were said to last much longer than the lower grade versions that (were?) are much more common/cheaper. Since 35mm film was a max of 36 exposures per roll (39/roll was squeezable), one could send back the same GOLD CD back to Kodak with two additional rolls to fill it up to the max.
Anyways, I pulled out a few of these Kodak PhotoCDs and lo-and-behold, my photos are still holding out after 20+ years. I really don’t need 980 more years, just another 20 more possibly! At that point, I will not really care anymore (or any less)! ;(
2 words of caution >> 1)Never expose CDRs to sunlight/heat/moisture and 2)The fragile side of the CD is the top side not the bottom!

I have CDs I created more than 14 years ago. They're still readable. How did they come by the 3 to 5 years lifespan? Did they leave them out in the sun, recorded side up?

How long will external HDD's last? Is this dependent upon SATA/IDE not being superseded with a new recording setup/software method invalidating all our HDD's?

WOW ... A thousand years, they say ... My heavens, that would be about 33 1/3 generations, to save this information for. I really, don't think they would care to see any of it, either. LOL

But, all joking aside, to save valuable photos, documents, birth records copied and so on ... A long time of preservation would be happily acceptable. Off hand, the Genealogists would LOVE this, as well as many, many Photographers.

My oldest daughter does Genealogy and has traced my family, back to Robert the Bruce. Now, that's pretty far back, with lots of information. It really would be nice, for her, to utilize this technology. She always worry, that she will lose, all of her hard work. If, anyone has seen what a Genealogy Tree looks like, they know that it is extremely complex and involved, with lots of information and notations.

Believe me, this M-DISC technology would/could be a lifesaver, for her and other family Genealogy researchers. I definitely, will pass this information on to her. She will probably, pass it along, to all of her Genealogy friends, if, she seems to like the idea.

Once again, Bob ... Thanks for a great article. It's always nice, to read about something, fairly new and definitely, different. :)

I would suggest reading http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/mar/03/research.elearning about electronic storage.
Someplace else I found (in Italian) http://www.attivissimo.net/int_conf/20061027-linuxday/20061027-linuxday-testo.odt where it states (somewhere in the middle) "the bit is eternal, but not so its supports and above all the devices necessary to consult them"
We can read ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs on stone (several thousand years old), but what about digital media support?

Hi Bob, I come from the museum world and we reckon good quality CDs will least for 10 years after which we will transfer the data. (I've got music CDs that are at least 15 years old that still play too). Really good point about the hardware changing so fast. There are still quite a few tape players about and I would think CD players should be around for a few years yet.

After having a flash drive that refused to operate after it was loaded with data the first time, I am loath to trust flash drives. What we store on CDs or DVDs today will not be able to be read in another thirty years or so, so keep hard copies of your special photos.
I've just had two photographs cleaned up via digital means - one photo is a hundred years old this year, while the other is 98 years old. They are of my great-uncles who died in WWI, and now the hundredth anniversary of the War is coming, I'm sure a lot of old photos will get pulled out and enlarged. Those photos will last another hundred years - a lot longer than any current storage medium.

Bob,
I still question the people who originated the claim that CDs and/or DVDs have such short lifespans. I suspect the people who came out with the M-DISC format.
Here is a quote taken (copy/paste) from a disc made in 1994:
CD HANDLING & CARE
Compact Discs have a shelf life of thirty years if the following precautions are taken to prevent damage. Never leave a disc exposed to direct sunlight or severe temperature. Always hold the CD by the edges to avoid touching the surface area. Immediately replace the disc in its case after use. Should the disc become soiled by fingerprints, dust, or dirt, wipe it with a clean, soft, lint-free, dry cloth. Always wipe in a straight line from center to edge, and never use a solvent or abrasive cleaner on the disc.

Since reading about the revised lifespan of CD/DVDs, I checked some of my older homemade discs - music, photos, VCDs, text files, and programs. All of those I checked are at least 10 years old and did not show any signs of degradation. I also checked some "budget" DVDs made in 2000, and they played without error.
Like some of the other posters, I question the methods and motives of those who came out with the 3 - 5 year lifespan.